Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $3.07BP/E 12.6Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
Grand Canyon Education passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 4/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $117.75 is below our fair value estimate of $144.11.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 35.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 26.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 50.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Grand Canyon Education has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 3.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 6.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Guidance lowered
Grand Canyon Education lowered its Q3 2026 Operating margin outlook on Jul 30, 2026.
Valuation4/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Grand Canyon Education's P/E of 12.6 is below its own 5-year median of 19.5.
P/E below the industry
Grand Canyon Education's P/E of 12.6 is below the Services-educational services median of 13.0.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Grand Canyon Education's EV/EBITDA of 9.3 is below its 5-year median of 14.3.
P/B above the industry
Grand Canyon Education's price-to-book of 4.80 is above the Services-educational services median of 2.30.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $117.75 is below our fair value estimate of $144.11.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 6.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 10.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 18.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -3.4% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 5.3% over the last twelve months; the Services-educational services median is 2.7%.
Guidance lowered
Grand Canyon Education lowered its Q3 2026 Operating margin outlook on Jul 30, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 35.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 26.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 50.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Grand Canyon Education's return on equity of 35.9% is above the Services-educational services median of 0.6%.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 3.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 21.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.4%.
Net margin above the industry
Grand Canyon Education's net margin of 21.9% is above the Services-educational services median of -3.7%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Grand Canyon Education has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.64 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 14.37; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Grand Canyon Education has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$144.11
The share price is 18% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.3× | 19.5× | 13.0× | $152.63 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 14.3× | 9.8× | $151.47 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 8.9% cost of equity | – | – | $104.19 | 17% |
| Fair value | $144.11 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 19.5
- Services-educational services median 13.0
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $49.53M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $40.66M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 18.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 35%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.92
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.80
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.1% | +6.7% | +5.6% | +3.6% | |
| Operating income | -3.4% | +3.8% | -0.8% | +2.4% | |
| Net income | -4.4% | +5.4% | -3.4% | +5.1% | |
| EPS, diluted | -0.3% | +10.4% | +7.2% | +10.7% | |
| Free cash flow | -5.6% | +8.7% | -3.1% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 21.5% | 17.0% | 28.2% | |
| Return on assets | 15.0% | 14.6% | 21.5% | |
| Current ratio | 1.01 | 2.81 | 3.65 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.09 | 0.05 | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | -0.23× | -0.57× | – | |
| Interest coverage | 178.6× | 63.0× | – | |
| Capex to revenue | 20.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | |
| Diluted shares | 47M | 47M | 28M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Grand Canyon Education generated $1.34B from operations and spent $2.16B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 8% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 19.5% | 1.10× | 1.31× | 28.2% |
| FY2024 | 21.9% | 1.06× | 1.30× | 30.1% |
| FY2023 | 21.3% | 1.09× | 1.30× | 30.2% |
| FY2022 | 20.3% | 0.89× | 1.22× | 22.0% |
| FY2021 | 29.0% | 0.58× | 1.17× | 19.9% |
| FY2020 | 30.5% | 0.48× | 1.17× | 17.0% |
| FY2019 | 33.3% | 0.52× | 1.13× | 19.5% |
| FY2018 | 27.1% | 0.64× | 1.19× | 20.8% |
| FY2017 | 20.9% | 0.81× | 1.36× | 23.1% |
| FY2016 | 17.0% | 0.88× | 1.43× | 21.5% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$216.17M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$273.49M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year24.3% → 21.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$273.49M vs $216.17M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose3.78 → 3.65
- No dilutionShare count did not rise29M → 28M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.11 → 1.09
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