American Public Education Inc (APEI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $753.29MP/E 16.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid15 of 30 checks passed
American Public Education passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 4/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $42.28 is below our fair value estimate of $42.59.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 26.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 27.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 10.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 0.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 15.6% over the last twelve months and averaged -4.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 2.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
P/E above the industry
American Public Education's P/E of 17.3 is above the Services-educational services median of 13.0.
Valuation2/6
P/E below its 5-year median
American Public Education's P/E of 17.3 is below its own 5-year median of 28.9.
P/E above the industry
American Public Education's P/E of 17.3 is above the Services-educational services median of 13.0.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
American Public Education's EV/EBITDA of 8.2 is above its 5-year median of 7.9.
P/B above the industry
American Public Education's price-to-book of 2.48 is above the Services-educational services median of 2.30.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $42.28 is below our fair value estimate of $42.59.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 0.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth4/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 2.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 44.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.9% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 2.9% over the last twelve months; the Services-educational services median is 2.7%.
Guidance raised
American Public Education raised its Full Year 2026 Revenue outlook on May 11, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 56.2% over the last twelve months, against 54.2% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 15.6% over the last twelve months and averaged -4.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 26.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
American Public Education's return on equity of 15.6% is above the Services-educational services median of 0.6%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 10.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 6.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -3.0%.
Net margin above the industry
American Public Education's net margin of 6.8% is above the Services-educational services median of -3.7%.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 27.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 0.0% five years ago to 27.6%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 87.8% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.91 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.99; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
American Public Education has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$42.59
The share price is 1% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.0× | 28.9× | 13.0× | $51.46 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | 7.9× | 9.8× | $44.94 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.0× | 2.3× | $27.98 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 8.4% cost of equity | – | – | $23.20 | 15% |
| Fair value | $42.59 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 28.9
- Services-educational services median 13.0
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $11.32M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $6.06M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 17.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 46%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.52
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.71
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.9% | +2.3% | +15.1% | +7.1% | |
| Gross profit | +7.0% | +3.4% | +12.0% | – | |
| Operating income | +45.0% | – | +14.1% | -0.9% | |
| Net income | +95.8% | – | +10.9% | -0.3% | |
| EPS, diluted | +147.3% | – | +1.7% | -3.4% | |
| Free cash flow | +65.9% | +53.2% | +2.9% | +4.0% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 9.6% | 6.2% | 10.5% | |
| Return on assets | 7.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | |
| Current ratio | 3.76 | 4.57 | 3.46 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 0.00 | 0.32 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | -6.03× | -1.28× | |
| Capex to revenue | 5.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | |
| Diluted shares | 16M | 15M | 19M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
American Public Education generated $201.83M from operations and spent $102.87M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 77% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.9% | 1.19× | 1.82× | 10.5% |
| FY2024 | 2.6% | 1.11× | 1.89× | 5.4% |
| FY2023 | -7.9% | 1.02× | 1.83× | -14.7% |
| FY2022 | -19.0% | 0.90× | 1.75× | -30.1% |
| FY2021 | 4.2% | 0.76× | 1.52× | 4.9% |
| FY2020 | 5.8% | 0.89× | 1.20× | 6.2% |
| FY2019 | 3.5% | 0.79× | 1.17× | 3.2% |
| FY2018 | 8.6% | 0.84× | 1.16× | 8.4% |
| FY2017 | 7.1% | 0.91× | 1.18× | 7.6% |
| FY2016 | 7.7% | 1.02× | 1.23× | 9.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$31.56M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$61.97M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year2.9% → 5.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$61.97M vs $31.56M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell16.4% → 18.2%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose3.29 → 3.46
- No dilutionShare count did not rise18M → 19M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year52.65% → 54.22%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.12 → 1.14
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