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ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) stock analysis

LLYNYSEPharmaceutical PreparationsFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 19/3024% above fair value
$1437.29+5.00 (+0.35%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.35TP/E 46.7Yield 0.43%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value2Growth5Performance5Health4Dividend3

Solid19 of 30 checks passed

Eli Lilly passes 19 of the 30 checks behind our score; 3 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
2/6
Growth
5/6
Past performance
5/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 86.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 74.9% over five years.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 27.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 31.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 49.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 23.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $1437.29 is above our fair value estimate of $1162.06.

  • High debt

    Debt is 123% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • P/E above the industry

    Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.

Valuation2/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is below its own 5-year median of 54.5.

  • P/E above the industry

    Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Eli Lilly's EV/EBITDA of 37.8 is below its 5-year median of 40.4.

  • P/B above the industry

    Eli Lilly's price-to-book of 33.58 is above the Drugs median of 2.29.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $1437.29 is above our fair value estimate of $1162.06.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 23.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth5/6
  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 31.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 49.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 49.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 27.2% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 45.5% over the last twelve months; the Drugs median is 8.0%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Eli Lilly lowered its full year Earnings per Share outlook on Aug 5, 2026.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 83.6% over the last twelve months, against 83.0% a year earlier.

Past performance5/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 86.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 74.9% over five years.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Eli Lilly's return on equity of 86.1% is above the Drugs median of -58.8%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 27.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 31.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.4%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Eli Lilly's net margin of 31.9% is above the Drugs median of -53.0%.

Financial health4/6
  • High debt

    Debt is 123% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 294% five years ago to 123%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 61.9% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.39 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 8.62; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Eli Lilly paid dividends worth 0.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Eli Lilly yields 0.5%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 21.7% of net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$1,162.06

The share price is 24% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$1,437.29Price$1,162.06Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E39.9×54.5×25.1×$1,229.9353%
EV/EBITDA28.8×40.4×17.1×$1,084.4847%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others7.5% cost of equity––$141.59–
Fair value$1,162.06100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 54.5
  • Drugs median 25.1

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$3.60B
Value traded per 1% price move
$2.51B

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
12.0%
Volatility (annualized)
35%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.25
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.52

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

83.0%+5.4 pts over 5 years

Net margin

31.7%+6.4 pts over 5 years

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