ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.35TP/E 46.7Yield 0.43%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid19 of 30 checks passed
Eli Lilly passes 19 of the 30 checks behind our score; 3 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 5/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 86.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 74.9% over five years.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 27.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 31.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 49.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 23.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $1437.29 is above our fair value estimate of $1162.06.
High debt
Debt is 123% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
P/E above the industry
Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.
Valuation2/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is below its own 5-year median of 54.5.
P/E above the industry
Eli Lilly's P/E of 46.7 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Eli Lilly's EV/EBITDA of 37.8 is below its 5-year median of 40.4.
P/B above the industry
Eli Lilly's price-to-book of 33.58 is above the Drugs median of 2.29.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $1437.29 is above our fair value estimate of $1162.06.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 23.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth5/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 31.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 49.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 49.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 27.2% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 45.5% over the last twelve months; the Drugs median is 8.0%.
Guidance lowered
Eli Lilly lowered its full year Earnings per Share outlook on Aug 5, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 83.6% over the last twelve months, against 83.0% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 86.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 74.9% over five years.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Eli Lilly's return on equity of 86.1% is above the Drugs median of -58.8%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 27.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 31.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.4%.
Net margin above the industry
Eli Lilly's net margin of 31.9% is above the Drugs median of -53.0%.
Financial health4/6
High debt
Debt is 123% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 294% five years ago to 123%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 61.9% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.39 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 8.62; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Eli Lilly paid dividends worth 0.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 0.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Eli Lilly yields 0.5%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 21.7% of net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$1,162.06
The share price is 24% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.9× | 54.5× | 25.1× | $1,229.93 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.8× | 40.4× | 17.1× | $1,084.48 | 47% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 7.5% cost of equity | – | – | $141.59 | – |
| Fair value | $1,162.06 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 54.5
- Drugs median 25.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $3.60B
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $2.51B
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 12.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 35%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.25
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.52
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +44.7% | +31.7% | +21.6% | +12.6% | |
| Gross profit | +47.8% | +35.2% | +23.2% | +13.8% | |
| Net income | +94.9% | +49.0% | +27.2% | +24.0% | |
| EPS, diluted | +96.0% | +49.3% | +27.6% | +26.1% | |
| Dividend per share | +15.4% | +15.2% | +15.2% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 19.2% | 150.2% | 101.2% | |
| Return on assets | 7.4% | 14.4% | 21.6% | |
| Current ratio | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.58 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 2.94 | 1.60 | |
| Inventory turnover | 1.6× | 1.5× | 1.0× | |
| Diluted shares | 1.06B | 913M | 899M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Eli Lilly does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 31.7% | 0.68× | 4.69× | 101.2% |
| FY2024 | 23.5% | 0.63× | 5.70× | 84.6% |
| FY2023 | 15.4% | 0.60× | 5.30× | 48.9% |
| FY2022 | 21.9% | 0.58× | 5.01× | 63.6% |
| FY2021 | 19.7% | 0.59× | 6.53× | 76.4% |
| FY2020 | 25.2% | 0.57× | 10.42× | 150.2% |
| FY2019 | 37.3% | 0.54× | 6.69× | 133.8% |
| FY2018 | 15.0% | 0.48× | 4.15× | 30.2% |
| FY2017 | -1.0% | 0.48× | 3.27× | -1.6% |
| FY2016 | 12.9% | 0.57× | 2.60× | 19.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$20.64B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$16.81B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year16.5% → 26.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$16.81B vs $20.64B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell36.2% → 36.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.15 → 1.58
- No dilutionShare count did not rise904M → 899M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year81.31% → 83.04%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.70 → 0.83
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