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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock analysis

HLTNasdaqHotels & MotelsFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 27, 2026Score 10/3078% above fair value
$372.73−4.18 (-1.11%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $82.93BP/E 50.3Yield 0.16%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth3Performance3Health1Dividend3

Mixed10 of 30 checks passed

Hilton Worldwide passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
3/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 38.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 10.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.34; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 78.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $376.91 is above our fair value estimate of $211.19.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 4.4 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Valuation0/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Hilton Worldwide's P/E of 50.9 is above its own 5-year median of 43.1.

  • P/E above the industry

    Hilton Worldwide's P/E of 50.9 is above the Hotels and Motels median of 25.6.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Hilton Worldwide's EV/EBITDA of 29.7 is above its 5-year median of 27.1.

  • P/S above the industry

    Hilton Worldwide's price-to-sales of 6.61 is above the Hotels and Motels median of 1.60 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $376.91 is above our fair value estimate of $211.19.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 78.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth3/6
  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 10.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 8.1% over the last twelve months; the Hotels and Motels median is 3.9%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Hilton Worldwide lowered its Full Year 2026 General and administrative expenses outlook on Oct 27, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance3/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 38.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 13.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Hilton Worldwide's net margin of 13.4% is above the Hotels and Motels median of 5.7%.

Financial health1/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 4.4 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.59 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.34; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Hilton Worldwide paid dividends worth 0.2% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.2% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Hilton Worldwide yields 0.2%.

  • Dividend was cut

    The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 8.1% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 7.1% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$211.19

The share price is 78% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$376.91Price$211.19Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E34.4×43.1×25.6×$254.9744%
EV/EBITDA18.5×27.1×9.7×$212.9139%
Earnings power9.5% cost of equity––$90.4517%
Fair value$211.19100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 43.1
  • Hotels and Motels median 25.6

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$652.68M
Value traded per 1% price move
$486.37M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
8.2%
Volatility (annualized)
24%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.37
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.93

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

22.4%+32.1 pts over 5 years

Net margin

12.1%+28.7 pts over 5 years

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