Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock analysis

FOSLNasdaqWatches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/PartsFiscal year ends December 31

Financials through Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Jul 4, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Aug 13, 2026Score 3/30

$8.74−1.23 (-12.34%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $516.87MP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Weak3 of 30 checks passed

Fossil passes 3 of the 30 checks behind our score; 16 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation: 0/6
Growth: 2/6
Past performance: 0/6
Financial health: 1/6
Dividend: 0/6

What stands out

Guidance raised
Fossil raised its full year 2026 Worldwide net sales outlook on Aug 12, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 56.7% over the last twelve months, against 55.0% a year earlier.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.76 times current liabilities.

What to watch

Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -2.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 226% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -15.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -0.2 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation0/6

P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Fossil's EV/EBITDA of 136.3 is above its 5-year median of 5.4.
P/B above the industry
Fossil's price-to-book of 6.56 is above the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median of 3.19.
Price against fair value
We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.
Margin of safety
Depends on the fair value estimate.

Growth2/6

Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -15.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -9.1% over the last twelve months; the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median is 9.2%.
Guidance raised
Fossil raised its full year 2026 Worldwide net sales outlook on Aug 12, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 56.7% over the last twelve months, against 55.0% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6

Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -2.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health1/6

High debt
Debt is 226% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 57.4% five years ago to 226%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -18.7% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -0.2 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.76 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.07; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

No dividend
Fossil has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

We don't publish a fair value for Fossil. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

P/E at month end
Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median 30.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day: $8.56M
Value traded per 1% price move: $1.51M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month: 23.0%
Volatility (annualized): 77%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year: 5.12
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y): 1.63

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

56.1%+8.3 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

-1.9%+6.5 pts over 5 years

Per year	1 year	3 years	5 years	10 years	Five-year pace
Revenue	-12.3%	-15.8%	-9.0%	-11.0%
Gross profit	-5.7%	-12.2%	-6.1%	-10.7%

Returns and balance sheet

10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.

Measure	FY2016	FY2020	FY2025
Current ratio	3.25	1.77	1.55
Debt to equity	0.63	0.57	1.73
Net debt to EBITDA	1.51×	0.79×	-13.61×
Interest coverage	4.7×	-4.3×	-0.9×
Inventory turnover	2.5×	2.3×	2.7×
Capex to revenue	2.2%	0.5%	0.3%
Diluted shares	48M	51M	54M