Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $7.37BP/E 52.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid15 of 30 checks passed
Duolingo passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 41.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Duolingo has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 41.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 28.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $164.12 is above our fair value estimate of $127.92.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 10.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 2.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
P/E above the industry
Duolingo's P/E of 55.1 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
Valuation2/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Duolingo's P/E of 55.1 is below its own 5-year median of 137.1.
P/E above the industry
Duolingo's P/E of 55.1 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Duolingo's EV/EBITDA of 39.6 is below its 5-year median of 135.4.
P/B above the industry
Duolingo's price-to-book of 5.18 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $164.12 is above our fair value estimate of $127.92.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 28.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 41.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 22.6% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 72.8% over the last twelve months, against 72.0% a year earlier.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 10.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 2.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 41.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Duolingo's return on equity of 10.5% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 12.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.9%.
Net margin above the industry
Duolingo's net margin of 12.3% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Duolingo has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.75 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 8.33; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Duolingo has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$127.92
The share price is 28% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.0× | 137.1× | 27.6× | $134.10 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 135.4× | 18.8× | $130.79 | 35% |
| P/B | 6.6× | 9.9× | 3.3× | $209.38 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.3% cost of equity | – | – | $50.46 | 15% |
| Fair value | $127.92 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 137
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $199.05M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $60.56M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 63%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.30
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.28
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2019 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +38.7% | +41.1% | +45.0% | – | |
| Gross profit | +37.7% | +40.5% | +45.3% | – | |
| Operating income | +116.6% | – | – | – | |
| Net income | +367.5% | – | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +355.9% | – | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +35.2% | +97.4% | +91.6% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
7 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | 19.2% | 38.1% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 25.1% | |
| Current ratio | – | 2.41 | 2.61 | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 2.1% | 1.7% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 13M | 48M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Duolingo generated $889.78M from operations and spent $43.42M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 98% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 39.9% | 0.63× | 1.52× | 38.1% |
| FY2024 | 11.8% | 0.66× | 1.52× | 12.0% |
| FY2023 | 3.0% | 0.62× | 1.42× | 2.7% |
| FY2022 | -16.1% | 0.52× | 1.34× | -11.3% |
| FY2021 | -24.0% | 0.60× | 1.94× | -27.8% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$414.07M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$387.82M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year9.3% → 31.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$387.82M vs $414.07M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.61 → 2.61
- No dilutionShare count did not rise47M → 48M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year72.78% → 72.23%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.78 → 0.80
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