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Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ) stock analysis

DPZNasdaqWholesale-Groceries & Related ProductsFiscal year ends January 2
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 6, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 13, 2026Score 16/3021% below fair value
$333.23+4.63 (+1.41%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $10.96BP/E 18.3Yield 2.09%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value5Growth2Performance4Health1Dividend4

Solid16 of 30 checks passed

Dominos Pizza passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
5/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 20.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $328.60 is below our fair value estimate of $413.71.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 110%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 4.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 2.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 3.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.1% a year.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.08; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Valuation5/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Dominos Pizza's P/E of 18.1 is below its own 5-year median of 26.7.

  • P/E below the industry

    Dominos Pizza's P/E of 18.1 is below the Groceries and Related Products median of 27.7.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Dominos Pizza's EV/EBITDA of 14.2 is below its 5-year median of 21.0.

  • P/S above the industry

    Dominos Pizza's price-to-sales of 2.13 is above the Groceries and Related Products median of 0.51 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $328.60 is below our fair value estimate of $413.71.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 20.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 2.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 11.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 3.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.1% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 4.5% over the last twelve months; the Groceries and Related Products median is 5.2%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 40.0% over the last twelve months, against 39.8% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 110%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 4.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 12.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.6%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Dominos Pizza's net margin of 12.0% is above the Groceries and Related Products median of 1.0%.

Financial health1/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 5.0 times.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.49 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.08; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Dominos Pizza paid dividends worth 2.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Dominos Pizza yields 2.3%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 41.3% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 39.6% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$413.71

The share price is 21% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$328.60Price$413.71Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E27.2×26.7×27.7×$494.3244%
EV/EBITDA16.7×21.0×12.3×$410.9839%
Earnings power8.6% cost of equity––$205.1517%
Fair value$413.71100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 26.7
  • Groceries and Related Products median 27.7

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$250.68M
Value traded per 1% price move
$164.91M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
16.1%
Volatility (annualized)
32%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.75
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.75

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

40.0%+1.2 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

19.3%+1.7 pts over 5 years

Net margin

12.2%+0.2 pts over 5 years

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