CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $44.66BP/E –Yield 1.24%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Carrier Global passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 12 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 2/6
What stands out
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.9% of total debt.
Guidance raised
Carrier Global raised its Full-Year 2026 Sales outlook on Jul 28, 2026.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 33.1% of free cash flow.
P/S below the industry
Carrier Global's price-to-sales of 1.96 is below the Industrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment median of 2.44 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 48.9% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $54.58 is above our fair value estimate of $36.64.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -25.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Valuation1/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Carrier Global's EV/EBITDA of 284.2 is above its 5-year median of 17.0.
P/S below the industry
Carrier Global's price-to-sales of 1.96 is below the Industrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment median of 2.44 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading above fair value
The share price of $54.58 is above our fair value estimate of $36.64.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 48.9% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -25.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 3.3% over the last twelve months; the Industrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment median is 7.8%.
Guidance raised
Carrier Global raised its Full-Year 2026 Sales outlook on Jul 28, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -7.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 14.8%.
Net margin below the industry
Carrier Global's net margin of -7.9% is below the Industrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment median of 5.3%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.9% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.00 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.14; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend2/6
Pays a dividend
Carrier Global paid dividends worth 1.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 1.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Carrier Global yields 1.3%.
Dividend was cut
The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 6 fiscal years.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 33.1% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$36.64
The share price is 49% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 2.4× | 2.4× | 2.4× | $67.71 | 40% |
| Earnings power | 11.1% cost of equity | – | – | $15.93 | 60% |
| Fair value | $36.64 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 19.0
- Industrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment median 27.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $333.71M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $279.73M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 14.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 35%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.26
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.24
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2017 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -3.3% | +7.9% | +4.5% | – | |
| Operating income | -17.9% | -18.3% | -6.8% | – | |
| Net income | -73.5% | -25.1% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -72.0% | -25.1% | -5.2% | – | |
| Free cash flow | +4720.5% | +14.1% | +9.0% | – | |
| Dividend per share | -15.1% | +2.1% | +19.2% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
9 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2017 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets | – | – | 4.0% | |
| Current ratio | – | 1.67 | 1.20 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 2.08× | 2.98× | |
| Interest coverage | – | 10.3× | 4.7× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | – | – | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 1.8% | 1.8% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 880M | 862M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Carrier Global generated $9.66B from operations and spent $11.80B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 17% of that went back into the business.
DuPont needs revenue, assets and equity
This company does not report all three for consecutive years.
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$1.48B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$2.51B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year17.1% → 4.0%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$2.51B vs $1.48B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell29.5% → 30.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.25 → 1.20
- No dilutionShare count did not rise912M → 862M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year26.60% → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.69 → 0.58
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