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Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock analysis

BURLNYSERetail-Department StoresFiscal year ends February 1
Financials through Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Aug 1, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Aug 27, 2026Score 15/3023% below fair value
$251.87−4.42 (-1.72%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $15.82BP/E 22.7Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth4Performance4Health3Dividend0

Solid15 of 30 checks passed

Burlington Stores passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
4/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 22.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $256.29 is below our fair value estimate of $332.50.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 41.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 37.2% over five years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 39.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • High debt

    Debt is 95.6% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • P/E above the industry

    Burlington Stores's P/E of 23.0 is above the General Merchandise Stores median of 21.9.

Valuation4/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Burlington Stores's P/E of 23.0 is below its own 5-year median of 37.3.

  • P/E above the industry

    Burlington Stores's P/E of 23.0 is above the General Merchandise Stores median of 21.9.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Burlington Stores's EV/EBITDA of 11.8 is below its 5-year median of 17.8.

  • P/B above the industry

    Burlington Stores's price-to-book of 8.04 is above the General Merchandise Stores median of 4.67.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $256.29 is below our fair value estimate of $332.50.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 22.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth4/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 9.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 39.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.9% over the last twelve months; the General Merchandise Stores median is 8.6%.

  • Guidance raised

    Burlington Stores raised its Fiscal Year 2026 net new stores outlook on Aug 27, 2026.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 44.6% over the last twelve months, against 43.6% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 41.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 37.2% over five years.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Burlington Stores's return on equity of 41.4% is above the General Merchandise Stores median of 24.9%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 5.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.7%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Burlington Stores's net margin of 5.8% is above the General Merchandise Stores median of 4.0%.

Financial health3/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 95.6% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 416% five years ago to 95.6%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 74.0% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.17 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Burlington Stores has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$332.50

The share price is 23% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$256.29Price$332.50Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E29.6×37.3×21.9×$329.6853%
EV/EBITDA15.2×17.8×12.6×$335.7247%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others10.2% cost of equity––$98.49–
Fair value$332.50100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 37.3
  • General Merchandise Stores median 21.9

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$333.65M
Value traded per 1% price move
$183.25M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
31.5%
Volatility (annualized)
41%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.33
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.06

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

43.9%+5.6 pts over 5 years

Net margin

5.3%+9.0 pts over 5 years

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