Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Astrana Health's P/E of 30.8 is below its own 5-year median of 35.0.

P/E above the industry

Astrana Health's P/E of 30.8 is above the Management and Public Relations Services median of 21.9.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Astrana Health's EV/EBITDA of 12.9 is below its 5-year median of 14.9.

P/B below the industry

Astrana Health's price-to-book of 2.14 is below the Management and Public Relations Services median of 2.31.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $32.94 is below our fair value estimate of $33.96.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 3.0% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing 10%+ a year

Revenue grew 40.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -22.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth accelerating

Net income grew 457% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -9.8% a year.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 35.1% over the last twelve months; the Management and Public Relations Services median is 7.2%.

Guidance raised

Astrana Health raised its Year Ending December 31, 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook on May 7, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 11.0% over the last twelve months, against 10.3% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 6.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 5.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Astrana Health's return on equity of 6.5% is above the Management and Public Relations Services median of 0.4%.

Earnings shrank over 5 years

Net income shrank 9.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 1.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.0%.

Net margin above the industry

Astrana Health's net margin of 1.4% is above the Management and Public Relations Services median of 0.2%.

High debt

Debt is 108% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 72.9% five years ago to 108%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 12.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 1.9 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.25 times current liabilities.

Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

The Altman Z-score is 2.79; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

No dividend

Astrana Health has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

Yield against Treasuries

No dividend.

Yield against the market

No dividend.

Dividend stability

No dividend.

Earnings cover

No dividend.

Cash-flow cover

No dividend.