Arrow Financial Corp (AROW) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $716.50MP/E 14.7Yield 2.95%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed10 of 30 checks passed
Arrow Financial passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Modest borrowings
Borrowings other than deposits are 36.0% of equity.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 1.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 28.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.5% a year.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 13.2% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $38.62 is above our fair value estimate of $34.12.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 9.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Valuation0/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Arrow Financial's P/E of 14.6 is above its own 5-year median of 12.6.
P/E above the industry
Arrow Financial's P/E of 14.6 is above the Commercial Banks median of 12.1.
P/S against the industry
Not enough revenue data to compare.
P/B above the industry
Arrow Financial's price-to-book of 1.39 is above the Commercial Banks median of 1.29.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $38.62 is above our fair value estimate of $34.12.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 13.2% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 28.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.5% a year.
Growth against the industry
Needs revenue for this year and last.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
Banks and insurers do not report gross profit.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 9.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on assets under 1%
Return on assets was 0.9%; for a bank or insurer, 1% or more is considered good.
Return on equity below the industry
Arrow Financial's return on equity of 9.5% is below the Commercial Banks median of 11.5%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 1.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.
Financial health5/6
Well capitalized
Equity is 9.3% of total assets; 8% or more is a comfortable cushion.
Loans funded by deposits
Loans equal 86.6% of deposits, so lending is funded by customer deposits.
Adequate loan-loss reserve
The allowance for credit losses is 1.0% of loans; we look for at least 1%.
Efficient operations
Needs non-interest expense and revenue.
Deposits growing
Deposits grew 15.6% over the past year.
Modest borrowings
Borrowings other than deposits are 36.0% of equity.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Arrow Financial paid dividends worth 3.9% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 3.9% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Arrow Financial yields 3.9%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$34.12
The share price is 13% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.4× | 12.6× | 12.1× | $32.64 | 50% |
| P/B | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.3× | $35.59 | 50% |
| Fair value | $34.12 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 12.6
- Commercial Banks median 12.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $2.65M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $2.78M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 8.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 24%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.95
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.58
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | +47.9% | -3.4% | +1.5% | +5.9% | |
| EPS, diluted | +49.7% | -2.5% | +1.3% | +3.9% | |
| Free cash flow | +25.3% | -7.3% | -0.5% | +2.9% | |
| Dividend per share | +4.6% | +3.4% | +3.5% | +2.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.6% | |
| Return on assets | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.4% | 3.9% | – | |
| Diluted shares | 14M | 16M | 17M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Arrow Financial generated $224.25M from operations and spent $99.07M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 40% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 22.5% | 0.03× | 11.10× | 8.2% |
| FY2022 | 32.7% | 0.04× | 11.04× | 13.5% |
| FY2021 | 34.9% | 0.04× | 10.94× | 14.1% |
| FY2020 | 31.0% | 0.04× | 10.80× | 12.8% |
| FY2019 | 32.1% | 0.04× | 10.80× | 13.1% |
| FY2018 | 32.1% | 0.04× | 11.07× | 14.0% |
| FY2017 | 27.9% | 0.04× | 11.12× | 12.2% |
| FY2016 | 26.7% | 0.04× | 11.31× | 11.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$43.95M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$41.28M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year0.7% → 1.0%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$41.28M vs $43.95M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise17M → 17M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose– → –
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