Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $697.52MP/E –Yield 13.44%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Atlas Energy Solutions passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 52.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $5.58 is below our fair value estimate of $11.71.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 31.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
P/B below the industry
Atlas Energy Solutions's price-to-book of 0.63 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -9.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -3.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 86.9% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 5.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Valuation3/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Atlas Energy Solutions's EV/EBITDA of 19.5 is above its 5-year median of 11.1.
P/B below the industry
Atlas Energy Solutions's price-to-book of 0.63 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $5.58 is below our fair value estimate of $11.71.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 52.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 31.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -8.1% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA, Nov 2, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 7.1% over the last twelve months, against 18.0% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -9.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -3.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Atlas Energy Solutions's return on equity of -9.9% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -11.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 13.1%.
Net margin below the industry
Atlas Energy Solutions's net margin of -11.1% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.
Financial health1/6
High debt
Debt is 86.9% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 5.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.82 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.63; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Atlas Energy Solutions has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$11.71
The share price is 52% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.5× | 1.3× | $12.37 | 29% |
| P/S | 1.7× | 1.7× | 1.7× | $14.31 | 29% |
| Earnings power | 10.8% cost of equity | – | – | $9.53 | 43% |
| Fair value | $11.71 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $38.46M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $11.16M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 45.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 68%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.76
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.18
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2021 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.7% | +31.4% | – | – | |
| Gross profit | -35.1% | -16.2% | – | – | |
| Dividend per share | -16.7% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
5 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2021 | FY2021 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | -4.5% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | -2.4% | |
| Current ratio | – | – | 1.46 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | 0.48 | |
| Interest coverage | 1.1× | 1.1× | – | |
| Inventory turnover | – | – | 61.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | 11.2% | 11.2% | 13.5% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 122M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Atlas Energy Solutions generated $900.20M from operations and spent $996.90M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -4.6% | 0.52× | 1.87× | -4.5% |
| FY2024 | 5.7% | 0.65× | 1.70× | 6.3% |
| FY2023 | 17.2% | 0.61× | 1.46× | 15.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$50.30M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$117.35M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.8% → -2.6%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$117.35M vs -$50.30M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell23.7% → 24.2%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.19 → 1.46
- No dilutionShare count did not rise109M → 122M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year21.97% → 13.76%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.84 → 0.56
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