Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $1.12BP/E 18.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid15 of 30 checks passed
Accel Entertainment passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 3/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 24.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $13.98 is below our fair value estimate of $18.53.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 22.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 25.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
High debt
Debt is 186% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.94; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
P/B above the industry
Accel Entertainment's price-to-book of 3.72 is above the Amusement and Recreation Services median of 2.76.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Accel Entertainment's P/E of 18.4 is below its own 5-year median of 20.6.
P/E below the industry
Accel Entertainment's P/E of 18.4 is below the Amusement and Recreation Services median of 35.3.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Accel Entertainment's EV/EBITDA of 8.1 is below its 5-year median of 8.9.
P/B above the industry
Accel Entertainment's price-to-book of 3.72 is above the Amusement and Recreation Services median of 2.76.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $13.98 is below our fair value estimate of $18.53.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 24.6% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 11.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 9.0% over the last twelve months; the Amusement and Recreation Services median is 5.5%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 99.8% over the last twelve months, against 99.6% a year earlier.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 22.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 25.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Accel Entertainment's return on equity of 22.3% is above the Amusement and Recreation Services median of -40.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 4.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.5%.
Net margin above the industry
Accel Entertainment's net margin of 4.5% is above the Amusement and Recreation Services median of -1.4%.
Financial health3/6
High debt
Debt is 186% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 266% five years ago to 186%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 30.6% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.27 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.94; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Accel Entertainment has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$18.53
The share price is 25% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.9× | 20.6× | 35.3× | $21.22 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.4× | 8.9× | 12.0× | $18.91 | 35% |
| P/B | 3.6× | 4.4× | 2.8× | $13.55 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 8.0% cost of equity | – | – | $13.82 | 15% |
| Fair value | $18.53 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 20.6
- Amusement and Recreation Services median 35.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $6.62M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $4.21M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 9.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 35%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.86
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.63
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2016 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8.1% | +11.1% | +33.3% | – | |
| Gross profit | +8.3% | +11.2% | +33.2% | – | |
| Operating income | +18.7% | +3.6% | – | – | |
| Net income | +46.0% | -11.4% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +46.3% | -9.5% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +13.4% | +0.7% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -1.0% | 19.6% | |
| Return on assets | – | -0.1% | 4.8% | |
| Current ratio | – | 2.90 | 2.61 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 2.66 | 2.25 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 1.94× | |
| Interest coverage | – | -1.8× | – | |
| Inventory turnover | – | – | 0.7× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 8.1% | 6.7% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 83M | 86M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Accel Entertainment generated $623.35M from operations and spent $497.76M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 63% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 3.9% | 1.24× | 4.10× | 19.6% |
| FY2024 | 2.9% | 1.26× | 4.33× | 15.5% |
| FY2023 | 3.9% | 1.32× | 4.71× | 24.2% |
| FY2022 | 7.6% | 1.31× | 4.39× | 44.0% |
| FY2021 | 4.3% | 1.25× | 4.11× | 22.0% |
| FY2020 | -0.1% | 0.59× | 12.60× | -1.0% |
| FY2019 | -8.6% | 1.02× | 59.86× | -521.2% |
| FY2018 | 3.2% | 0.85× | 7.73× | 21.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$51.47M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$150.88M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year3.9% → 4.9%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$150.88M vs $51.47M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell53.5% → 51.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.76 → 2.61
- No dilutionShare count did not rise85M → 86M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year99.42% → 99.58%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.35 → 1.27
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