StockData
Xponential Fitness, Inc. logo

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) stock analysis

XPOFNYSEServices-Miscellaneous Amusement & RecreationFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 9, 2026Score 3/3039% above fair value
$4.63−0.16 (-3.34%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $228.37MP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value1Growth0Performance2Health0Dividend0

Weak3 of 30 checks passed

Xponential Fitness passes 3 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
1/6
Growth
0/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Xponential Fitness's EV/EBITDA of 15.8 is below its 5-year median of 19.7.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was -300% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -308%.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 38.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $4.79 is above our fair value estimate of $3.46.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -3.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation1/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Xponential Fitness's EV/EBITDA of 15.8 is below its 5-year median of 19.7.

  • P/S above the industry

    Xponential Fitness's price-to-sales of 21.16 is above the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 3.06 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $4.79 is above our fair value estimate of $3.46.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 38.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth0/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -3.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 3.2% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median is 9.8%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Xponential Fitness lowered its full year 2026 Revenue outlook on Aug 6, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance2/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 21.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was -300% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -308%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Xponential Fitness's net margin of -300% is below the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 1.6%.

Financial health0/6

  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -2.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.69 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is -2.88; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Xponential Fitness has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$3.46

The share price is 39% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$4.79Price$3.46Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA15.7×19.7×12.4×$3.5670%
Earnings power12.0% cost of equity––$3.2230%
Fair value$3.46100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • EV/EBITDA at month end
  • Own 5-year median 19.7
  • Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median 12.4

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$3.94M
Value traded per 1% price move
$1.01M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
36.3%
Volatility (annualized)
82%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.36
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.41

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2019 to 2025

Operating margin

178.9%−463.6 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-348.7%+775.7 pts over 5 years

See a number that looks wrong?