Vericel Corp (VCEL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $3.04BP/E 100.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
Vericel passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 5/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
Vericel has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 42.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 18.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 254% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $59.45 is above our fair value estimate of $16.78.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 9.4% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
P/E above the industry
Vericel's P/E of 100.8 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Vericel's P/E of 100.8 is above the Drugs median of 25.1.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Vericel's price-to-book of 7.92 is above the Drugs median of 2.29.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $59.45 is above our fair value estimate of $16.78.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 254% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth5/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 18.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 155% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 42.0% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 25.3% over the last twelve months; the Drugs median is 8.0%.
Guidance raised
Vericel raised its 2026 Total revenue outlook on Jul 30, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 74.5% over the last twelve months, against 73.8% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 9.4% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Vericel's return on equity of 9.4% is above the Drugs median of -58.9%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 42.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 10.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -1.2%.
Net margin above the industry
Vericel's net margin of 10.3% is above the Drugs median of -53.0%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Vericel has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 42.0 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 5.13 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 14.07; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Vericel has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$16.78
The share price is 254% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.1× | – | 25.1× | $14.80 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.1× | – | 17.1× | $16.86 | 35% |
| P/B | 5.0× | 7.7× | 2.3× | $37.61 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 10.1% cost of equity | – | – | $7.98 | 15% |
| Fair value | $16.78 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Drugs median 25.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $36.45M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $12.79M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 15.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 45%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.07
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.04
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2010 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +16.5% | +18.9% | +17.3% | +18.4% | |
| Gross profit | +19.5% | +23.3% | +19.5% | +23.6% | |
| Operating income | +144.4% | – | +36.0% | – | |
| Net income | +59.4% | – | +42.0% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +60.0% | – | +39.8% | – | |
| Free cash flow | – | +34.9% | +10.6% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -83.5% | 2.3% | 5.1% | |
| Return on assets | -47.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% | |
| Current ratio | 3.48 | 5.50 | 5.03 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.38 | – | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.79× | – | – | |
| Interest coverage | -1283.0× | 395.3× | 17.5× | |
| Inventory turnover | 11.6× | 4.9× | 4.0× | |
| Capex to revenue | 2.6% | 2.1% | 9.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 23M | 47M | 52M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Vericel generated $192.11M from operations and spent $126.66M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 6.0% | 0.60× | 1.42× | 5.1% |
| FY2024 | 4.4% | 0.60× | 1.52× | 4.0% |
| FY2023 | -1.6% | 0.63× | 1.50× | -1.5% |
| FY2022 | -10.2% | 0.64× | 1.42× | -9.2% |
| FY2021 | -4.8% | 0.70× | 1.47× | -4.9% |
| FY2020 | 2.3% | 0.69× | 1.46× | 2.3% |
| FY2019 | -8.2% | 0.87× | 1.27× | -9.1% |
| FY2018 | -9.0% | 1.05× | 1.39× | -13.0% |
| FY2017 | -27.0% | 1.24× | 2.18× | -73.2% |
| FY2016 | -36.0% | 1.31× | 1.77× | -83.5% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$16.52M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$51.91M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year2.9% → 3.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$51.91M vs $16.52M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose4.23 → 5.03
- No dilutionShare count did not rise52M → 52M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year72.55% → 74.42%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.67 → 0.64
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