Twilio Inc (TWLO) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $33.96BP/E 27.6Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed10 of 30 checks passed
Twilio passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
No debt
Twilio has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 10.56; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 41.2% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $219.48 is above our fair value estimate of $155.48.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -6.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Twilio's P/E of 27.6 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Twilio's price-to-book of 3.70 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $219.48 is above our fair value estimate of $155.48.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 41.2% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 9.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 19.1% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance lowered
Twilio lowered its third quarter ending September 30, 2026 organic revenue growth outlook on Aug 6, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 48.6% over the last twelve months, against 49.3% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -6.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Twilio's return on equity of 14.9% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 21.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -18.5%.
Net margin above the industry
Twilio's net margin of 21.8% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Twilio has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 4.47 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 10.56; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Twilio has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$155.48
The share price is 41% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.6× | – | 27.6× | $219.48 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.8× | – | 18.8× | $83.90 | 41% |
| P/B | 2.5× | 1.8× | 3.3× | $150.02 | 12% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 14.7% cost of equity | – | – | $31.23 | – |
| Fair value | $155.48 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- EV/EBITDA at month end
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 18.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $1.01B
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $200.31M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 25.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 64%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.00
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.97
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2013 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.7% | +9.8% | +23.5% | +40.7% | |
| Gross profit | +8.8% | +11.0% | +22.0% | +38.9% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -18.5% | -7.7% | 0.4% | |
| Return on assets | -14.5% | -6.7% | 0.3% | |
| Current ratio | 4.79 | 7.52 | 4.03 | |
| Capex to revenue | 5.1% | 1.5% | – | |
| Diluted shares | 53M | 147M | 160M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Twilio does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.7% | 0.52× | 1.24× | 0.4% |
| FY2024 | -2.5% | 0.42× | 1.21× | -1.2% |
| FY2023 | -24.4% | 0.34× | 1.19× | -10.0% |
| FY2022 | -32.8% | 0.30× | 1.18× | -11.6% |
| FY2021 | -33.4% | 0.25× | 1.15× | -9.8% |
| FY2020 | -27.9% | 0.24× | 1.15× | -7.7% |
| FY2019 | -27.1% | 0.37× | 1.31× | -13.0% |
| FY2018 | -18.8% | 0.88× | 1.85× | -30.6% |
| FY2017 | -16.0% | 0.93× | 1.25× | -18.5% |
| FY2016 | -14.9% | 0.97× | 1.28× | -18.5% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$33.83M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$1.00B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-0.9% → 0.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$1.00B vs $33.83M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose4.20 → 4.03
- No dilutionShare count did not rise166M → 160M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year51.10% → 48.92%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.38 → 0.51
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