SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $2.94BP/E 36.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
SPS Commerce passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 27.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $82.85 is below our fair value estimate of $114.74.
No debt
SPS Commerce has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 15.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -2.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 15.4% a year.
P/E above the industry
SPS Commerce's P/E of 36.8 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
SPS Commerce's P/E of 36.8 is below its own 5-year median of 94.2.
P/E above the industry
SPS Commerce's P/E of 36.8 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
SPS Commerce's EV/EBITDA of 20.9 is below its 5-year median of 57.9.
P/B below the industry
SPS Commerce's price-to-book of 3.15 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $82.85 is below our fair value estimate of $114.74.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 27.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 18.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 18.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -2.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 15.4% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 6.9% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance lowered
SPS Commerce lowered its Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue outlook on Jul 30, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 70.2% over the last twelve months, against 68.4% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
SPS Commerce's return on equity of 8.8% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 15.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 10.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 12.1%.
Net margin above the industry
SPS Commerce's net margin of 10.7% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
SPS Commerce has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.25 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 10.63; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
SPS Commerce has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$114.74
The share price is 28% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.0× | 94.2× | 27.6× | $101.25 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 57.9× | 18.8× | $116.43 | 41% |
| P/B | 6.2× | 9.0× | 3.3× | $162.82 | 12% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 10.7% cost of equity | – | – | $35.89 | – |
| Fair value | $114.74 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 94.2
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $45.22M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $25.48M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 36.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 42%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.07
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.17
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +17.8% | +18.6% | +19.2% | +16.8% | |
| Gross profit | +21.7% | +20.4% | +19.6% | +17.0% | |
| Operating income | +33.1% | +18.5% | +18.7% | +32.6% | |
| Net income | +21.1% | +19.2% | +15.4% | +35.0% | |
| EPS, diluted | +20.6% | +18.2% | +14.3% | +33.7% | |
| Free cash flow | +10.9% | +23.8% | +16.1% | +39.0% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 2.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | |
| Return on assets | 1.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | |
| Current ratio | 5.78 | 3.39 | 2.17 | |
| Capex to revenue | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | |
| Diluted shares | 34M | 36M | 38M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
SPS Commerce generated $681.43M from operations and spent $321.29M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 33% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 12.4% | 0.68× | 1.20× | 10.2% |
| FY2024 | 12.1% | 0.69× | 1.22× | 10.1% |
| FY2023 | 12.3% | 0.72× | 1.24× | 10.9% |
| FY2022 | 12.2% | 0.70× | 1.26× | 10.8% |
| FY2021 | 11.6% | 0.67× | 1.26× | 9.9% |
| FY2020 | 14.6% | 0.64× | 1.26× | 11.8% |
| FY2019 | 12.1% | 0.67× | 1.24× | 10.0% |
| FY2018 | 9.6% | 0.68× | 1.20× | 7.9% |
| FY2017 | 0.2% | 0.69× | 1.17× | 0.1% |
| FY2016 | 2.6% | 0.69× | 1.14× | 2.0% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$93.34M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$178.79M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year9.4% → 9.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$178.79M vs $93.34M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.60 → 2.17
- No dilutionShare count did not rise38M → 38M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year66.96% → 69.18%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.77 → 0.73
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