Smith Midland Corp (SMID) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $108.21MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
Smith Midland passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 4/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $20.86 is below our fair value estimate of $29.34.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 16.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 6.1% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 15.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -35.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 36.2% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -1.6% over the last twelve months; the Materials median is 2.3%.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 23.5% over the last twelve months, against 28.3% a year earlier.
Valuation4/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Smith Midland's EV/EBITDA of 7.2 is below its 5-year median of 13.2.
P/B below the industry
Smith Midland's price-to-book of 1.94 is below the Materials median of 2.43.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $20.86 is below our fair value estimate of $29.34.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 23.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 151% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -35.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 36.2% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -1.6% over the last twelve months; the Materials median is 2.3%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 23.5% over the last twelve months, against 28.3% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 15.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 16.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Smith Midland's return on equity of 14.5% is above the Materials median of 5.1%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 36.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 8.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.2%.
Net margin above the industry
Smith Midland's net margin of 8.6% is above the Materials median of 2.8%.
Financial health6/6
Low debt
Debt is 6.1% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 17.7% five years ago to 6.1%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 419% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 48.9 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 4.06 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.96; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Smith Midland has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$29.34
The share price is 29% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7× | 13.2× | 12.3× | $35.88 | 58% |
| P/B | 3.1× | 3.7× | 2.4× | $33.05 | 17% |
| Earnings power | 10.4% cost of equity | – | – | $11.59 | 25% |
| Fair value | $29.34 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 37.6
- Materials median 21.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $317.65K
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $161.83K
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 19.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 54%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.93
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.11
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +19.0% | +23.1% | +16.3% | +12.3% | |
| Gross profit | +30.1% | +40.1% | +18.7% | +13.9% | |
| Operating income | +71.7% | +171.0% | +35.2% | +26.8% | |
| Net income | +62.9% | +150.0% | +36.2% | +28.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | +62.8% | +150.6% | +35.9% | +27.4% | |
| Free cash flow | – | – | +0.4% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 22.1% | 12.0% | 26.0% | |
| Return on assets | 13.4% | 6.0% | 16.1% | |
| Current ratio | 3.01 | 2.62 | 3.40 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.07 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | -0.03× | -0.74× | -0.41× | |
| Interest coverage | 26.8× | 17.3× | 75.5× | |
| Capex to revenue | 9.4% | 6.0% | 10.0% | |
| Diluted shares | 5M | 5M | 5M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Smith Midland generated $42.65M from operations and spent $28.67M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 13.4% | 1.20× | 1.62× | 26.0% |
| FY2024 | 9.8% | 1.21× | 1.70× | 20.2% |
| FY2023 | 1.3% | 1.03× | 1.72× | 2.4% |
| FY2022 | 1.6% | 0.93× | 1.66× | 2.5% |
| FY2021 | 14.9% | 1.02× | 1.80× | 27.3% |
| FY2020 | 6.1% | 0.99× | 1.99× | 12.0% |
| FY2019 | 4.2% | 1.12× | 2.10× | 9.8% |
| FY2018 | 4.2% | 1.14× | 1.96× | 9.3% |
| FY2017 | 6.4% | 1.59× | 1.67× | 17.1% |
| FY2016 | 7.1% | 1.90× | 1.65× | 22.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$12.51M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$14.30M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year12.5% → 18.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$14.30M vs $12.51M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell6.5% → 4.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.39 → 3.40
- No dilutionShare count did not rise5M → 5M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year25.49% → 27.86%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.28 → 1.37
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