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OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) stock analysis

OSPNNasdaqServices-Computer Integrated Systems DesignFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 18/3023% below fair value
$22.43+0.25 (+1.13%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $827.55MP/E 12.5Yield 0.53%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth1Performance4Health6Dividend3

Solid18 of 30 checks passed

OneSpan passes 18 of the 30 checks behind our score; 4 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
6/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 23.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $22.18 is below our fair value estimate of $28.83.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 23.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • No debt

    OneSpan has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 26.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • P/E above its 5-year median

    OneSpan's P/E of 12.3 is above its own 5-year median of 10.1.

  • Guidance lowered

    OneSpan lowered its Full Year 2026 Hardware revenue outlook on Aug 4, 2026.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    OneSpan's P/E of 12.3 is above its own 5-year median of 10.1.

  • P/E below the industry

    OneSpan's P/E of 12.3 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    OneSpan's EV/EBITDA of 13.2 is above its 5-year median of 8.9.

  • P/B below the industry

    OneSpan's price-to-book of 2.91 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $22.18 is below our fair value estimate of $28.83.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 23.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 4.9% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.

  • Guidance lowered

    OneSpan lowered its Full Year 2026 Hardware revenue outlook on Aug 4, 2026.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 74.3% over the last twelve months, against 73.9% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6
  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 26.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 23.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    OneSpan's return on equity of 26.8% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 27.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.0%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    OneSpan's net margin of 27.5% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.

Financial health6/6
  • No debt

    OneSpan has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.35 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 6.04; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    OneSpan paid dividends worth 2.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; OneSpan yields 2.3%.

  • Dividend stability

    Fewer than five years of dividend history.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 27.6% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 43.1% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$28.83

The share price is 23% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$22.18Price$28.83Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E18.8×10.1×27.6×$33.7653%
EV/EBITDA13.8×8.9×18.8×$23.2047%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others11.7% cost of equity––$6.22–
Fair value$28.83100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 10.1
  • Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$17.00M
Value traded per 1% price move
$4.81M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
13.3%
Volatility (annualized)
46%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.55
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.36

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

73.8%+5.1 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

19.9%+22.4 pts over 5 years

Net margin

30.0%+32.5 pts over 5 years

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