NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $3.56BP/E 13.7Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Mixed11 of 30 checks passed
NCR Atleos passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 54.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $48.23 is below our fair value estimate of $105.88.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 59.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 20.8% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 17.0%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
High debt
Debt is 451% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 2.3 times; we look for at least 5.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 17.7% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
NCR Atleos's P/E of 13.7 is below its own 5-year median of 21.6.
P/E below the industry
NCR Atleos's P/E of 13.7 is below the Computer and Office Equipment median of 25.3.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
NCR Atleos's EV/EBITDA of 6.7 is below its 5-year median of 7.4.
P/B above the industry
NCR Atleos's price-to-book of 6.32 is above the Computer and Office Equipment median of 4.20.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $48.23 is below our fair value estimate of $105.88.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 54.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 15.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 2.0% over the last twelve months; the Computer and Office Equipment median is 11.3%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 59.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 20.8% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 17.0%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
NCR Atleos's return on equity of 59.7% is above the Computer and Office Equipment median of 7.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 6.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.9%.
Net margin above the industry
NCR Atleos's net margin of 6.1% is above the Computer and Office Equipment median of 4.0%.
Financial health0/6
High debt
Debt is 451% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 17.7% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 2.3 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.90 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.66; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
NCR Atleos has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$105.88
The share price is 54% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.2× | 21.6× | 25.3× | $84.83 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1× | 7.4× | 20.0× | $156.42 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 7.6% cost of equity | – | – | $44.10 | 17% |
| Fair value | $105.88 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 21.6
- Computer and Office Equipment median 25.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $38.12M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $47.47M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 6.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 24%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.14
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- -0.36
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2020 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.1% | +1.8% | – | – | |
| Operating income | +9.4% | +22.8% | – | – | |
| Net income | +102.5% | +17.8% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +98.1% | +15.2% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | -7.0% | +3.4% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
6 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2020 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | 52.1% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 2.9% | |
| Current ratio | – | – | 0.96 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | 6.84 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 3.05× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | 1.8× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 2.7% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 76M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
NCR Atleos generated $1.78B from operations and spent $478.00M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 94% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 3.7% | 0.78× | 18.01× | 52.1% |
| FY2024 | 1.9% | 0.77× | 25.66× | 36.5% |
| FY2023 | -3.6% | 0.73× | 3.30× | -8.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$162.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$356.00M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year1.4% → 2.9%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$356.00M vs $162.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell51.7% → 47.1%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.02 → 0.96
- No dilutionShare count did not rise74M → 76M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.75 → 0.79
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