Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

Vail Resorts's P/E of 37.5 is above its own 5-year median of 29.5.

P/E above the industry

Vail Resorts's P/E of 37.5 is above the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 35.3.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Vail Resorts's EV/EBITDA of 12.0 is below its 5-year median of 12.6.

P/B above the industry

Vail Resorts's price-to-book of 22.88 is above the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 3.09.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $154.43 is above our fair value estimate of $142.96.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 8.0% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -14.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth not accelerating

Net income grew -47.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.9% a year.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew -4.3% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median is 9.8%.

Guidance lowered

Vail Resorts lowered its fiscal 2027 Real Estate Reported EBITDA outlook on Sep 28, 2026.

Gross margin trend

This company does not report gross profit.

Return on equity over 15%

Return on equity was 44.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 32.5% over five years.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 10.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Vail Resorts's return on equity of 44.4% is above the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 4.4%.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 2.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 5.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 9.1%.

Net margin above the industry

Vail Resorts's net margin of 5.2% is above the Miscellaneous Amusement and Recreation median of 1.6%.

High debt

Debt is 1325% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 179% five years ago to 1325%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 2.0 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.80 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.52; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Vail Resorts paid dividends worth 5.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield above Treasuries

The 5.8% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Vail Resorts yields 5.8%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Not covered by earnings

Dividends take 215% of net income, leaving little room.

Not covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 128% of free cash flow.