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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock analysis

MSFTNasdaqServices-Prepackaged SoftwareFiscal year ends June 30
Financials through Q1 FY2027, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 24/306% below fair value
$521.13−12.03 (-2.26%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $3.87TP/E 27.2Yield 0.70%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value4Growth4Performance6Health6Dividend4

Strong24 of 30 checks passed

Microsoft passes 24 of the 30 checks behind our score; 1 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
4/6
Growth
4/6
Past performance
6/6
Financial health
6/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $521.13 is below our fair value estimate of $552.04.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 34.2% over the last twelve months and averaged 38.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 35.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 7.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 5.6% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • P/B above the industry

    Microsoft's price-to-book of 8.23 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 67.7% over the last twelve months, against 68.8% a year earlier.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Valuation4/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Microsoft's P/E of 27.2 is below its own 5-year median of 34.0.

  • P/E below the industry

    Microsoft's P/E of 27.2 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Microsoft's EV/EBITDA of 23.5 is below its 5-year median of 27.0.

  • P/B above the industry

    Microsoft's price-to-book of 8.23 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $521.13 is below our fair value estimate of $552.04.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 5.6% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth4/6
  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 16.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 22.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 36.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 16.9% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 17.9% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 67.7% over the last twelve months, against 68.8% a year earlier.

Past performance6/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 34.2% over the last twelve months and averaged 38.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 35.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Microsoft's return on equity of 34.2% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 16.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 41.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 36.6%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Microsoft's net margin of 41.2% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.

Financial health6/6
  • Low debt

    Debt is 7.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 41.0% five years ago to 7.5%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 552% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 50.6 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.22 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 9.34; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Microsoft paid dividends worth 0.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 0.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Microsoft yields 0.7%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 19.0% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 45.1% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$552.04

The share price is 6% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$521.13Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E30.8×34.0×27.6×$590.7153%
EV/EBITDA22.9×27.0×18.8×$507.8347%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others10.5% cost of equity––$90.60–
Fair value$552.04100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 34.0
  • Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$12.99B
Value traded per 1% price move
$9.30B

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
16.6%
Volatility (annualized)
34%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.04
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.13

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026

Gross margin

67.9%−1.0 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

46.8%+5.2 pts over 5 years

Net margin

40.3%+3.9 pts over 5 years

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