Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

Marathon Petroleum's P/E of 13.9 is above its own 5-year median of 8.3.

P/E above the industry

Marathon Petroleum's P/E of 13.9 is above the Petroleum Refining median of 13.9.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

Marathon Petroleum's EV/EBITDA of 8.3 is above its 5-year median of 7.5.

P/B above the industry

Marathon Petroleum's price-to-book of 5.93 is above the Petroleum Refining median of 2.75.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $402.84 is above our fair value estimate of $336.68.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 19.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -9.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -22.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew 15.0% over the last twelve months; the Petroleum Refining median is 18.4%.

Guidance lowered

Marathon Petroleum lowered its Fourth-Quarter 2026 Corporate outlook on Nov 3, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 12.5% over the last twelve months, against 8.6% a year earlier.

Return on equity over 15%

Return on equity was 47.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 34.1% over five years.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 26.0%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Marathon Petroleum's return on equity of 47.9% is above the Petroleum Refining median of 17.7%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 5.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.7%.

Net margin below the industry

Marathon Petroleum's net margin of 5.6% is below the Petroleum Refining median of 7.0%.

High debt

Debt is 172% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 142% five years ago to 172%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 52.2% of total debt.

Interest well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 8.7 times.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.25 times current liabilities.

Low bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 3.87; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Marathon Petroleum paid dividends worth 1.0% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 1.0% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Marathon Petroleum yields 1.0%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 13.6% of net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 9.0% of free cash flow.