Mattel Inc (MAT) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $4.59BP/E 9.4Yield 0.00%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid15 of 30 checks passed
Mattel passes 15 of the 30 checks behind our score; 5 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 3/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 31.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $16.08 is below our fair value estimate of $23.45.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 21.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 31.4% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 11.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
High debt
Debt is 99.8% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -0.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 4.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 16.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 26.3% a year.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Mattel's P/E of 9.4 is below its own 5-year median of 12.2.
P/E below the industry
Mattel's P/E of 9.4 is below the Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median of 18.1.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Mattel's EV/EBITDA of 9.0 is below its 5-year median of 11.7.
P/B above the industry
Mattel's price-to-book of 1.96 is above the Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median of 1.53.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $16.08 is below our fair value estimate of $23.45.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 31.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -0.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 4.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 16.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 26.3% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 6.4% over the last twelve months; the Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median is 1.9%.
Guidance raised
Mattel raised its FY2026 Adjusted Operating Income outlook on Apr 29, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 49.1% over the last twelve months, against 50.3% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 21.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 31.4% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 11.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Mattel's return on equity of 21.8% is above the Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median of 0.3%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 26.3% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 9.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 9.0%.
Net margin above the industry
Mattel's net margin of 9.0% is above the Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median of 0.5%.
Financial health3/6
High debt
Debt is 99.8% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 468% five years ago to 99.8%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 29.3% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 4.2 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.98 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.81; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Mattel has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$23.45
The share price is 31% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.1× | 12.2× | 18.1× | $25.82 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.6× | 11.7× | 9.5× | $20.15 | 35% |
| P/B | 2.4× | 3.2× | 1.5× | $19.40 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 9.6% cost of equity | – | – | $27.49 | 15% |
| Fair value | $23.45 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 12.2
- Dolls, Toys, Games and Sporting and Athletic median 18.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $131.10M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $45.88M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 24.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 43%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.47
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.95
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -0.6% | -0.5% | +3.1% | -0.6% | |
| Gross profit | -4.7% | +1.6% | +3.0% | -0.7% | |
| Operating income | -21.3% | -6.8% | +7.8% | +0.1% | |
| Net income | -26.6% | +0.3% | +26.3% | +0.7% | |
| EPS, diluted | -21.5% | +4.1% | +28.8% | +1.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 12.4% | 22.1% | 17.7% | |
| Return on assets | 4.8% | 2.3% | 6.0% | |
| Current ratio | 1.95 | 1.84 | 2.15 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.97 | 4.68 | 1.04 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.86× | 3.68× | 1.52× | |
| Interest coverage | 5.5× | 1.9× | 4.6× | |
| Inventory turnover | 4.8× | 4.6× | 5.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | 2.6% | – | – | |
| Diluted shares | 344M | 349M | 322M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Mattel does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 7.4% | 0.81× | 2.93× | 17.7% |
| FY2024 | 10.1% | 0.83× | 2.94× | 24.6% |
| FY2023 | 3.9% | 0.86× | 3.00× | 10.2% |
| FY2022 | 7.2% | 0.86× | 3.47× | 21.7% |
| FY2021 | 16.5% | 0.92× | 5.47× | 82.9% |
| FY2020 | 2.7% | 0.85× | 9.71× | 22.1% |
| FY2019 | -4.9% | 0.85× | 8.82× | -36.5% |
| FY2018 | -11.8% | 0.79× | 5.89× | -54.8% |
| FY2017 | -21.6% | 0.77× | 3.47× | -57.5% |
| FY2016 | 5.7% | 0.84× | 2.59× | 12.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$397.58M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$593.26M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.4% → 6.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$593.26M vs $397.58M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell35.7% → 35.1%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.38 → 2.15
- No dilutionShare count did not rise343M → 322M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year50.82% → 48.73%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.84 → 0.82
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