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Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) stock analysis

ITWNYSEGeneral Industrial Machinery & EquipmentFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 9/3030% above fair value
$287.52+0.77 (+0.27%)

Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $81.71BP/E –Yield 2.13%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth2Performance0Health4Dividend3

Mixed9 of 30 checks passed

Illinois Tool Works passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 12 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 14.3 times.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 34.8% of total debt.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 8.32; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • Guidance raised

    Illinois Tool Works raised its full year 2026 GAAP EPS outlook on Jul 28, 2026.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 29.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $287.52 is above our fair value estimate of $221.88.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 0.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew 2.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Valuation0/6
  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Illinois Tool Works's EV/EBITDA of 20.4 is above its 5-year median of 20.2.

  • P/S above the industry

    Illinois Tool Works's price-to-sales of 4.91 is above the General Industrial Machinery and Equipment median of 2.95 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $287.52 is above our fair value estimate of $221.88.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 29.6% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 0.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew 2.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 4.8% over the last twelve months; the General Industrial Machinery and Equipment median is 12.4%.

  • Guidance raised

    Illinois Tool Works raised its full year 2026 GAAP EPS outlook on Jul 28, 2026.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 53.1% over the last twelve months, against 52.7% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6
  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin against its history

    Needs five years of revenue and net income.

  • Net margin against the industry

    Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health4/6
  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 34.8% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 14.3 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.29 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 8.32; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Illinois Tool Works paid dividends worth 2.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.3% yield is below the 4.7% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Illinois Tool Works yields 2.3%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 64.6% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$221.88

The share price is 30% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$287.52Price$221.88Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA19.3×20.2×18.3×$269.8870%
Earnings power9.2% cost of equity––$109.8630%
Fair value$221.88100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • General Industrial Machinery and Equipment median 26.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$368.21M
Value traded per 1% price move
$343.59M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
11.0%
Volatility (annualized)
22%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.57
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.82

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

52.9%+11.6 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

26.3%+3.4 pts over 5 years

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