Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $952.60MP/E 5.5Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed13 of 30 checks passed
Green Plains passes 13 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 3/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 80.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $13.59 is below our fair value estimate of $67.90.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.0% of total debt.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 22.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -11.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
High debt
Debt is 50.0% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -17.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 5.0 times; we look for at least 5.
Valuation5/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E below the industry
Green Plains's P/E of 5.5 is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of 25.2.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Green Plains's EV/EBITDA of 4.8 is below its 5-year median of 31.8.
P/B below the industry
Green Plains's price-to-book of 1.00 is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of 1.51.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $13.59 is below our fair value estimate of $67.90.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 80.0% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -17.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -19.1% over the last twelve months; the Chemicals and Allied Products median is 3.5%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (the remainder of the year EBITDA associated with the generation of production tax credits, May 7, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 19.7% over the last twelve months, against 5.8% a year earlier.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 22.9% over the last twelve months and averaged -11.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Green Plains's return on equity of 22.9% is above the Chemicals and Allied Products median of -16.2%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 10.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -3.6%.
Net margin above the industry
Green Plains's net margin of 10.9% is above the Chemicals and Allied Products median of -13.3%.
Financial health3/6
High debt
Debt is 50.0% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 81.3% five years ago to 50.0%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.0% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 5.0 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.31 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.18; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Green Plains has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$67.90
The share price is 80% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.2× | – | 25.2× | $61.80 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2× | 31.8× | 10.4× | $74.88 | 47% |
| P/Bleft out, too far from the others | 1.5× | 1.5× | 1.5× | $20.55 | – |
| Fair value | $67.90 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Chemicals and Allied Products median 25.2
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $19.84M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $10.35M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 14.9%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 53%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.66
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.86
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -14.9% | -17.0% | +1.7% | -3.4% | |
| Gross profit | +5.0% | +6.7% | +4.2% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 1.3% | -15.6% | -14.9% | |
| Return on assets | 0.5% | -6.6% | -7.2% | |
| Current ratio | 1.68 | 1.42 | 1.94 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.29 | 0.81 | 0.52 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 4.00× | -5.65× | 6.96× | |
| Interest coverage | 1.8× | -3.1× | -0.9× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 39M | 35M | 67M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Green Plains generated $271.13M from operations and spent $730.36M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 88% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -5.8% | 1.24× | 2.06× | -14.9% |
| FY2024 | -3.4% | 1.32× | 2.18× | -9.7% |
| FY2023 | -2.8% | 1.62× | 2.32× | -10.6% |
| FY2022 | -3.5% | 1.71× | 2.30× | -13.7% |
| FY2021 | -2.3% | 1.51× | 2.34× | -8.3% |
| FY2020 | -5.7% | 1.17× | 2.34× | -15.6% |
| FY2019 | -6.9% | 1.23× | 2.30× | -19.6% |
| FY2018 | 0.5% | 1.19× | 2.65× | 1.7% |
| FY2017 | 1.9% | 1.24× | 2.93× | 6.8% |
| FY2016 | 0.3% | 1.54× | 2.66× | 1.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$121.28M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$110.86M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-4.3% → -6.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$110.86M vs -$121.28M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell24.3% → 22.8%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.48 → 1.94
- No dilutionShare count did not rise64M → 67M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year5.31% → 6.55%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.27 → 1.17
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