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Etsy Inc (ETSY) stock analysis

ETSYNYSEServices-Business Services, NECFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 11/3046% below fair value
$88.29−0.06 (-0.07%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $7.61BP/E 10.4Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value5Growth2Performance2Health2Dividend0

Mixed11 of 30 checks passed

Etsy passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
5/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
2/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 46.2% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $88.35 is below our fair value estimate of $164.37.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 442% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -14.1% a year.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 46.1% of total debt.

What to watch

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 14.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 1.81; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • P/S above the industry

    Etsy's price-to-sales of 2.53 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 1.67 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

Valuation5/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Etsy's P/E of 10.4 is below its own 5-year median of 34.0.

  • P/E below the industry

    Etsy's P/E of 10.4 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 25.8.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Etsy's EV/EBITDA of 12.6 is below its 5-year median of 14.1.

  • P/S above the industry

    Etsy's price-to-sales of 2.53 is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 1.67 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $88.35 is below our fair value estimate of $164.37.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 46.2% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 442% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -14.1% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.8% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.9%.

  • Guidance issued

    The latest outlook (FY 26 GMS, Oct 28, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 71.3% over the last twelve months, against 73.5% a year earlier.

Past performance2/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on invested capital

    Needs operating income and invested capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 14.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 32.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.4%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Etsy's net margin of 32.8% is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 3.8%.

Financial health2/6

  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 46.1% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.36 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 1.81; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Etsy has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$164.37

The share price is 46% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$88.35Price$164.37Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E29.9×34.0×25.8×$254.9944%
EV/EBITDA14.9×14.1×15.7×$102.3439%
Earnings power12.1% cost of equity––$67.4417%
Fair value$164.37100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 34.0
  • Miscellaneous Business Services median 25.8

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$291.99M
Value traded per 1% price move
$117.13M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
21.3%
Volatility (annualized)
49%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.86
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.44

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2025

Gross margin

71.6%−1.4 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

9.2%−15.3 pts over 5 years

Net margin

5.7%−14.6 pts over 5 years

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