Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $7.48BP/E 17.9Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed11 of 30 checks passed
Dropbox passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 0/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $33.16 is below our fair value estimate of $46.58.
No debt
Dropbox has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 2.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 7.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.62; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
P/S above the industry
Dropbox's price-to-sales of 2.95 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 2.77 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Dropbox's P/E of 17.9 is below its own 5-year median of 18.0.
P/E below the industry
Dropbox's P/E of 17.9 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Dropbox's EV/EBITDA of 9.4 is below its 5-year median of 14.4.
P/S above the industry
Dropbox's price-to-sales of 2.95 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 2.77 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading below fair value
The share price of $33.16 is below our fair value estimate of $46.58.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth0/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 2.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 7.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 0.2% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 79.9% over the last twelve months, against 80.6% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 17.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 19.1%.
Net margin above the industry
Dropbox's net margin of 17.2% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health5/6
No debt
Dropbox has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.07 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.62; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Dropbox has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$46.58
The share price is 29% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.8× | 18.0× | 27.6× | $42.11 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.6× | 14.4× | 18.8× | $54.66 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 9.5% cost of equity | – | – | $39.63 | 17% |
| Fair value | $46.58 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 18.0
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.6
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $149.03M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $79.06M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 12.6%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 38%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.11
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.93
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2015 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -1.1% | +2.7% | +5.7% | – | |
| Gross profit | -3.9% | +2.4% | +6.1% | – | |
| Operating income | +41.7% | +56.1% | – | – | |
| Net income | +12.4% | -2.8% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +32.9% | +7.0% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +6.8% | +6.8% | +13.7% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -136.3% | -44.9% | -39.9% | |
| Return on assets | – | -10.1% | 16.5% | |
| Current ratio | – | 1.13 | 0.63 | |
| Capex to revenue | 13.6% | 4.2% | 0.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 189M | 414M | 273M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Dropbox generated $4.16B from operations and spent $5.47B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 2% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 20.2% | 0.82× | -2.42× | -39.9% |
| FY2024 | 17.7% | 0.81× | -6.87× | -98.5% |
| FY2023 | 18.1% | 0.82× | -12.82× | -190.9% |
| FY2022 | 23.8% | 0.75× | -10.28× | -183.4% |
| FY2021 | 15.6% | 0.79× | 137.31× | 1683.2% |
| FY2020 | -13.4% | 0.75× | 4.45× | -44.9% |
| FY2019 | -3.2% | 0.76× | 2.96× | -7.1% |
| FY2018 | -34.8% | 1.03× | 3.48× | -124.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$508.40M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$951.80M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year15.2% → 15.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$951.80M vs $508.40M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.44 → 0.63
- No dilutionShare count did not rise323M → 273M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year82.53% → 80.13%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.85 → 0.76
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