BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.11BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak6 of 30 checks passed
BigBear.ai passes 6 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Low debt
Debt is 2.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 6.40; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
P/B below the industry
BigBear.ai's price-to-book of 1.62 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 30.2% over the last twelve months, against 27.3% a year earlier.
What to watch
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -41.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -6.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -47.5 times; we look for at least 5.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -429% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Valuation1/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
BigBear.ai's price-to-book of 1.62 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Price against fair value
We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.
Margin of safety
Depends on the fair value estimate.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -6.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -1.5% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (year-ended December 31, 2026 Revenue, Oct 27, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 30.2% over the last twelve months, against 27.3% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -41.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
BigBear.ai's return on equity of -27.9% is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -127% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -124%.
Net margin below the industry
BigBear.ai's net margin of -127% is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 2.4% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 107% five years ago to 2.4%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -429% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -47.5 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 4.92 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 6.40; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
BigBear.ai has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itWe don't publish a fair value for BigBear.ai. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/B at month end
- Own 5-year median 5.0
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 3.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $49.74M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $15.98M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 33.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 79%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.81
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.97
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -19.3% | -6.3% | – | – | |
| Gross profit | -37.0% | -12.8% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
8 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2018 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | -96.7% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | -47.5% | |
| Current ratio | – | 2.85 | 1.78 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 1.07 | 0.17 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | -0.10× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | -11.8× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 0.4% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 359M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
BigBear.ai generated $167.08M from operations and spent $103.32M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 2% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -230.2% | 0.21× | 2.04× | -96.7% |
| FY2024 | -186.8% | 0.58× | -16.13× | 1753.3% |
| FY2023 | -45.5% | 0.79× | -19.52× | 698.1% |
| FY2022 | -71.8% | 0.54× | 3.41× | -131.5% |
| FY2021 | -84.9% | 0.48× | 2.31× | -95.0% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$293.91M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero-$41.95M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-147.8% → -85.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income-$41.95M vs -$293.91M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell39.4% → 10.1%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.46 → 1.78
- No dilutionShare count did not rise234M → 359M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year28.58% → 22.31%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.79 → 0.37
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