Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $497.10MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak4 of 30 checks passed
Aspen Aerogels passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 3/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Low debt
Debt is 12.2% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 14.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 135% of total debt.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.10 times current liabilities.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 37.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $6.41 is above our fair value estimate of $4.67.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -53.2% over the last twelve months and averaged -33.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -83.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Aspen Aerogels's price-to-book of 2.88 is above the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 2.15.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $6.41 is above our fair value estimate of $4.67.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 37.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 14.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -39.3% over the last twelve months; the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median is 8.4%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (Q3 2026 Revenue, Aug 6, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 2.4% over the last twelve months, against 32.9% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -53.2% over the last twelve months and averaged -33.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -83.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Aspen Aerogels's return on equity of -53.2% is below the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 7.6%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -60.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -47.3%.
Net margin below the industry
Aspen Aerogels's net margin of -60.8% is below the Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median of 1.9%.
Financial health3/6
Low debt
Debt is 12.2% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 5.4% five years ago to 12.2%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 135% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.10 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -2.52; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Aspen Aerogels has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$4.67
The share price is 37% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 2.1× | 2.1× | 2.1× | $4.74 | 50% |
| P/S | 1.8× | 2.8× | 0.8× | $4.59 | 50% |
| Fair value | $4.67 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/B at month end
- Own 5-year median 2.1
- Wholesale Trade-durable Goods median 2.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $6.11M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.62M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 24.6%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 91%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.77
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 2.19
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -40.1% | +14.5% | +22.0% | +8.3% | |
| Gross profit | -74.9% | +109.9% | +25.8% | +6.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -10.1% | -34.4% | -91.6% | |
| Return on assets | -8.8% | -21.7% | -59.8% | |
| Current ratio | 2.77 | 3.38 | 3.90 | |
| Inventory turnover | 9.7× | 7.8× | 5.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | 11.2% | 3.4% | 13.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 23M | 26M | 82M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Aspen Aerogels generated $234.06M from operations and spent $490.92M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -143.7% | 0.42× | 1.53× | -91.6% |
| FY2024 | 3.0% | 0.57× | 1.45× | 2.4% |
| FY2023 | -19.2% | 0.35× | 1.44× | -9.8% |
| FY2022 | -45.9% | 0.44× | 1.44× | -28.7% |
| FY2021 | -30.5% | 0.87× | 1.43× | -37.8% |
| FY2020 | -21.7% | 1.00× | 1.58× | -34.4% |
| FY2019 | -10.5% | 1.38× | 1.57× | -22.5% |
| FY2018 | -33.0% | 0.94× | 1.30× | -40.2% |
| FY2017 | -17.3% | 0.86× | 1.19× | -17.8% |
| FY2016 | -10.2% | 0.86× | 1.15× | -10.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$389.55M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$32.87M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year1.9% → -43.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$32.87M vs -$389.55M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose3.72 → 3.90
- No dilutionShare count did not rise80M → 82M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year40.40% → 16.97%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.64 → 0.30
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